More good news from YouGov

As per usual these days, the latest YouGov poll makes for good reading for the Scottish Conservative party and for the Conservative party as a whole putting the party on 23% - which is just above the average of 22.2% that the Scottish Conservatives are polling in YouGov polls.

The voting intentions of the sample polled are below:

Lab - 30%
SNP - 28%
Con - 23%
LD - 16%

When it comes to how well Gordon Brown is doing as Prime Minister, 26% thought he was doing very or fairly well whilst 70% thought he was doing very or fairly badly giving him a net approval rating of -44%.

As for the next Prime Minister, 57% believed that David Cameron was doing very or fairly well compared to just 35% who thought he was doing very or fairly badly giving him a net approval rating in Scotland on +22% - a lead over the current PM of 66%!

People in Scotland have constantly been told by commentators that there is no Cameron bounce in Scotland and that a Conservative Government would be one without a Scottish mandate. Well, it seems that the Scottish Conservatives are up a third in the polls since 2005 – in line with the Party nationally - and now we see that Cameron is far more popular that the current Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

Scottish Conservatives making the difference

Good wee piece on Conservativehome today regarding the release of the Scottish Conservatives 2008 Annual report in which the party lists its achievements since last May’s election.

The ConHome piece also highlights this article by Alan Cochrane in today’s Daily Telegraph.

P.s. Been blogging lite recently solely due to laziness. Back next week.

STB

Labour's worst poll rating of all time

Further grim reading for the Labour Party in today’s press. Not only were they greeted with headlines such as “No way back for Wendy” and “Losing his (Gordon Brown) grip on Scotland” but the latest YouGov poll has Labour at its lowest poll rating of all time. The new poll, conducted by YouGov for the Sun Newspaper, has Labour trailing a massive 26 points behind the Tories who are on 49%. Is it all bad news for Gordon Brown? Well, apparently not as asked if voters would back Labour under a different leader, all of the suggested alternatives have a minus net reading – still safe then Gordon!

But what does the poll mean in Scotland. Well, the poll broken down by Scottish figures has Labour on 26%, the Tories on 21%, Lib Dems on 13% and the SNP on 32%. Before going further – this is the third YouGov poll since April that has the Scottish Conservatives on more than 20%. If this was the result in Scotland the next time round Labour would lose Scotland with the SNP taking 23 seats compared to Labours 21 with the Tories taking seven seats – including Alistair Darling’s Edinburgh South West – and the Lib Dems taking 8 seats – down 3 since 2005. The big winners from this latest poll are the SNP who comfortably meet their target of 20 seats whilst at the same time making a very impressive gain of 17 seats. Labour are the big losers down a whopping 20 seats since 2005 with the Tories picking up six seats of which five are from Labour – Edinburgh South, Edinburgh South West, Dumfries and Galloway, Stirling and Renfrewshire East – and one from the Liberal Democrats – Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirkshire.

Who are the big hitters from Labour that would lose? Other than Alistair Darling the biggest name that would lose their seat according to this poll is Des Brown. Others include Michael Connarty, Nigel Griffiths, Gavin Strang and Anne Moffat. The Liberal Democrats would also lose Danny Alexander and Shadow Shadow secretary of state for Scotland Michael Moore.

The Daily Telegraph YouGov poll - 30 April 2008

Some of you may have seen the latest YouGov poll in today’s Daily Telegraph, which unfortunately isn’t on the online edition.

I thought I would break it down into what the opinion poll means to each party. First up….

The SNP

The Nats are up on their Holyrood result from 2007. Then they got 33% on the Constituency vote and 31 on the regional list vote, now they are at 36% and 37% respectively. They are also up in terms of Westminster voting as well, rising from their 18% in 2005 to 30% now. 43% of respondents also believe Salmond would make the best first minister while 53% are satisfied with his performance as First Minister with only 26% being satisfied with Gordon Brown’s performance as Prime Minister. John Swinney is also doing well as Finance Secretary, 34% believing that he is doing a good job in comparison to 22% who think he is doing a bad job.

Labour

Oh dear… Labour are down 1% in both the Constituency vote and the Regional List vote. At Westminster level the party are down 6% from their 2005 general election result of 40% and only 11% of respondents believe Wendy Alexander would make the best First Minister. Also, 21% think Wendy is doing a good job in comparison to 60% believing she has done a bad one. Also, only 26% are satisfied with Brown’s performance as Prime Minister whilst 63% are dissatisfied with his performance as PM.

Scottish Conservatives

Down in terms of Scottish Parliament votes but as with the figures for the Lib Dems they are not in line with any other polls. We are up 1% at Westminster level and this is only going to increase when voters are presented with a “Only David Cameron can get rid of Gordon Brown” and as I showed last week 44% of people in Scotland think David Cameron is doing a good job whilst 43% think Gordon Brown is doing a good job.

Our 17% is markedly higher than the 14% YouGov gave us in August and, according to Electoral Calculus this would give us 2 Westminster seats -DCT and D&G - and put us very close in a batch of others such as Argyll, Edinburgh South and Roxburgh Berwickshire and Selkirkshire - and closing in on WAK and East Renfrewshire.

In the individual performances section which rates the performances of John Swinney – as Finance Secretary – and Wendy, Annabel and Nicol Stephen as leaders of their party Annabel fairs the best with 41% believing that she is doing a good job with only 20% thinking that she is doing a bad one.

Lib Dems

The Lib Dems are down slightly on their Constituency vote, 15% now compared to 16% in 2007. Their regional vote is slightly better up 2% on what they got in 2007. Doing less grand at Westminster where they are down 9% from 2005 – a figure that is fairly consistent with other polls. On the individual performance section the Libs will be pleased as 27% of people believe Nicol is doing a good job – which is six points more than Wendy. He also has a whopping 32% less people thinking he’s doing a bad job.

Overall

By all the stuff you’d reckon the Nats would be happy with the poll huh? Well, probably not actually. Support for independence, if a referendum was held, is at 19%, down 4% from April 2007 whilst support for the parliament staying is it is up 9 points to 34% with support for giving the parliament greater powers remaining exactly the same as it was in April 2007 – 38%.

58% of respondents also believe that the Executive is able to operate effectively with the powers it has and can have the best of both worlds by remaining in the UK. It is interesting to note that more people think that the rows between Holyrood and Westminster are essentially Salmond’s fault – with 38% thinking that, as opposed to those believing them to be Westminster’s – 35%.

The Tories edge into the spotlight

For those of you that read my blog and know me personally will testify, one of my favourite things in life is to sit relaxing, drinking coffee whilst reading the economist and just today I stumbled across this fine piece.

The piece praises the way the Scottish Conservatives have performed in the budget, heck, most publications have and many will find no interest in the piece. That is until the author becomes clear as the piece is written by none other than Peter Jones the husband of Midlothian Labour MSP Rhona Brankin who describes Wendy as being "unable to oppose the SNP effectively"....

Long live the Lib/Lab pact

It certainly appears that even though they are no longer in Government, the only deal going on in Scottish Politics is the one between the Fib Dems and Labour.

Three different bloggers have picked up on the voting records of the Lib Dems, myself, Tartan Hero and Calum Cashley, showing that the Lib Dems have voted with Labour more than any other party has voted with another, sort of showing that there is no deal between the Nats and the Tories.

Anyway, on the politics show this morning the topic of the chat was obviously Donorgate with a panel of Bill Aitken, from the Tories, and Roseanna Cunningham from the SNP. But what's this, no Lib Dem on to criticise the donations scandal that is likely to bring a premature end to a fairly short lived leadership for Ms Alexander. Anyone any ideas why there was no Fib Dem on the show?

Nat and Tory Local Government Coalitions possible

Following on from this post earlier on, it seems that the SNP's long term ban on working with the Conservatives at local government level has been overturned. The Beeb is reporting that the National Council passed a motion allowing Nat Councillors to form Coalitions with other parties.

While the Lib Dems continue to grumble over a "back room deal"...

An SNP spokesman said: "The motion as amended simply reflects the realities of Scottish local government post the introduction of the single transferable vote."

"It doesn't apply to national politics and the parliament, where we are absolutely delighted with the success of the minority SNP Government and we have no plans to change that."

Tartan Hero has a rather interesting post on whether or not the Tories will do a deal with the Nats, and where, and it can be viewed here.

It is not expected to pave the way for any kind of coalition deal at Holyrood.

Those are the words in the BBC report of the fact that today the SNP Councillors will put a motion to the SNP National Council calling for them to be able to work with any political party. The SNP had put a ban on working with the Conservative Party following the poll tax but today it is very likely that such a ban will be lifted. Of course, as the headline suggests, "It is not expected to pave the way for any kind of coalition deal at Holyrood" even though the Fib Dems, Tavish Scott and Mike Rumbles in particular, and Labour seem to think some sort of deal between the Tories and the SNP has taken place.

Height of irony being accused of making deals by the most opportunistic political party in the land.

Lib Dem nonsense in the chamber

I've spent the last few hours watching the budget debate, I know I know, and was humoured when in his speech at the end portly middle aged MSP Mike Rumbles criticised the Scottish Conservatives for backroom deals with the SNP.

Scottish Tory Boy learns that Tavish "Why am I not leader yet?" Scott was briefing the press on the same subject last week despite the fact that no such deals ever took place. Usual Liberal Democrat nonsense to say the least, I don't know, at times, why I dedicate so much time on my blog to Scotland's fourth party.

Tories back vote on independence?

Today's Scotland on Sunday carries a story in which the deputy chairman of the Scottish Conservative Party, Richard Cook PPC, has backed the SNPs calls for a referendum on Independence.

I tend to agree with him safe in the knowledge that once the idea of an independent Scotland was put to the people of Scotland it would be shot down quite convincingly and unless the SNP went down the route of a 'neverendum' then the issue of independence would be a dead duck.

I await comments...

Working with the Nats

I'm getting a bit bored of Labour Ridiculous Politics taking shots at the Tories for constructively working with the Nats on a few issues at the Scottish Parliament.

It shows the exactly just how bitter those within the Labour ranks actually are. While the Scottish Conservatives are trying to get on with things and taking advantage of a minority administration to actually get stuff down at Holyrood, Labour can't get over the fact that they are no longer the Governing Party.

Everyone in the Conservative Party knows that the party is very different to the Nats on a number of issues but also know that they are quite similar on a number of issues. Take for example cutting business rates as well as more bobbies on the beat with the SNP likely to take on a number of other parties policies in order to get anything done at Holyrood.

Perhaps the Labour party could stop bitching about not being in Government, and actually get on with things.