Who is Labour candidate in Glasgow East going to be?

I've heard Councillor George Ryan and also that both Stephen Purcell and former Labour General Secretary Lesley Quinn have both told Gordon Brown, countless times, to bog off when asked if they would stand.

The SNP have selected some councillor that Kezia doesn’t like (she’s an angry tyke at times) while the SSP have selected former MSP Frances Curran with Solidarity yet to announce but I am going to categorically state that it won’t be Sheridan that they pick.

The Tories launched their campaign today. The party have selected Davena Rankin who I met once and was thoroughly impressed with.

Cameron is the mutts nuts but what sort of mutt?

While some bloggers are trying to wind me up by writing posts about Tories that I don’t even know I thought I would focus on the bread and butter issues in politics at the moment.

Namely, the types of dog people associate each of the National party leaders with. Apparently, many regard Chris Clegg as being most like a Chihuahua (I do love words that are spelt nothing like how they sound) whilst Gordon Brown is a St Bernard (same as the year before) whilst Prime Minister-elect David Cameron has gone from being compared to a Poodle a year ago to being a Labrador now.

There is more good news within the BPIX poll, which interviewed over 2000 people for the poll – more than some real polsters, as the poll suggests that people would rather sit next to David Cameron or Chris Clegg than Gordon Brown at a dinner party.

For those that don’t believe these stats to be important (how could you not?) the poll also (rather boringly) asked about voting intentions as well with 49% supporting the Conservatives, 26% supporting Labour and just 14% supporting the Liberal Democrats basically in line with most polls.

For this story, I doff my hat to the excellent Two Doctors blog. Here is the link to the story on the Beeb.

Should he stay or should he go?

It seems that the overwhelming answer from the Labour masses is yes. A survey conducted by Labourhome – the blog for Labour grass roots supporters – saw a devastating 60% of party faithful believing that Brown should go now and leave No 10 before the expected 2010 election.

The website surveyed 400 people and only 37.6% believed that Brown should lead Labour into the next election with the rest wanting him to go – albeit at different times.

17.9% believe that Brown should go now, just short of his one year anniversary as leader, 28% believe he should be given until his party’s conference in September and 16.5% believe eh should be given until May 2009 – the Euro-MP and English Council Elections.

Humorously, the poll also shows that the only minister less popular than Brown is Chancellor Alistair Darling. In the section relating to ratings of front benchers Brown scored 3.93 with Darling scoring just 3.73. One Labour MSP told me he believes the best leadership at Westminster would be a joint ticket of Allan Johnson and David Milliband – their ratings were considerably higher 6.33 and 6.02 respectively.

I also note that Labourhome has removed any reference to the survey from its site. How brave.

More good news from YouGov

As per usual these days, the latest YouGov poll makes for good reading for the Scottish Conservative party and for the Conservative party as a whole putting the party on 23% - which is just above the average of 22.2% that the Scottish Conservatives are polling in YouGov polls.

The voting intentions of the sample polled are below:

Lab - 30%
SNP - 28%
Con - 23%
LD - 16%

When it comes to how well Gordon Brown is doing as Prime Minister, 26% thought he was doing very or fairly well whilst 70% thought he was doing very or fairly badly giving him a net approval rating of -44%.

As for the next Prime Minister, 57% believed that David Cameron was doing very or fairly well compared to just 35% who thought he was doing very or fairly badly giving him a net approval rating in Scotland on +22% - a lead over the current PM of 66%!

People in Scotland have constantly been told by commentators that there is no Cameron bounce in Scotland and that a Conservative Government would be one without a Scottish mandate. Well, it seems that the Scottish Conservatives are up a third in the polls since 2005 – in line with the Party nationally - and now we see that Cameron is far more popular that the current Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

Two bad polls for Gordon Brown

I feel most of the Bendy Wendy stuff will have been covered by every other blogger as well as most newspapers so I am going to enter slightly silly season on my blog looking at some of the more left field stories/polls involving Gordon Brown in the last few days.

I doff my hat to Guido Fawkes for this tip off. It seems that Gordon Brown will become the first incumbent Prime Minister to not be featured in Madame Tussauds for over 150 years after a poll of 6,333 people found that 83.8% (5308) did not want Gordon Brown featured with just 16.2% wanting the current PM immortalised in wax.

One of my Labour voting friends is also dismayed at the results of a poll carried out by Grazia, Britain’s first weekly glossy magazine (apparently). The poll showed that of the women interviewed, 18 percent voted Conservative in 2005 compared to 27% voting for Labour but if an election was to be held tomorrow the figures would be somewhat different with 33% saying they’d vote Conservative compared to just 14% voting for Labour. 37% of women also think that the Conservative party will do more for women compared to 29% who think it is the Labour party that will do more for women. When it comes down to telling the truth, 26% of respondents think David Cameron is more likely to keep his promises, ten percent higher than the amount that believe Gordon Brown will keep his.

My favourite question listed a series of words, including intelligent; approachable; honest etc, and asked the respondents what words they would most associate with both Gordon Brown and David Cameron. The top three for Gordon were: intelligent (41%), Old Fashioned (46%) and Boring (50%) with the top 3 for Cameron being: modern thinking (53%), intelligent (41% -meaning that the respondents think DC is just as intelligent as Brown) and approachable (39%).

Did Brown bottle it?

ScottishToryBoy learns that Scottish Labour are briefing the press that Brown bottled it yesterday at Prime Ministers Questions as a line had been agreed.

Does Scottish Labour think Wendy stands a better chance of hanging on than Gordon?

Wendy hung out to dry by Brown

I just watched Prime Ministers Questions for the first time in a wee while, interesting to see the next Prime Minister having Gordon Brown over a barrel. He asked Gordon Brown, who had previously said that there’s a line in Britain that pitted "those of us who are prepared to support the shared values of the union" against "those who are prepared to play fast and loose with the union and put the whole future of the union at risk" and failed to back Wendy Alexander over her referendum calls, if he backed Wendy Alexander over her referendum calls.

Brown responded by stating that Wendy hadn’t said that, when asked again by Cameron if he backed Wendy he again refused to answer the question. It’s quite clear that Wendy has been cut adrift again by Gordon Brown. Although it’s difficult to see how she can remain as leader when the person who put her there refuses to back her it is difficult to see if this really is rock bottom for Wendy’s leadership or just another day.

A further to my last post and whether or not Labour can lodge a referendum bill:

From Scottish Parliament Standing Orders (9.14). Given that the SNP have clearly stated their intent to bring forward a Bill on this subject in the lifetime of this Parliament, any such Members’ Bill would fall.

12. The member who lodged the final proposal obtains the right to introduce a Bill to give effect to it only if—

(a) no later than the end of the period referred to in paragraph 11—

(i) at least 18 other members have notified the Clerk of their support for the final proposal; and

(ii) the members supporting the final proposal include members of at least half of the political parties (or groups formed under Rule 5.2.2) represented in the Parliamentary Bureau; and


(b) the Executive has not given, by the end of the period referred to in paragraph 11 (or has waived its right to give, within that period), an indication under paragraph 13. [see below]


13. An indication under this paragraph is an indication, given in writing by a member of the Scottish Executive or junior Scottish Minister to the member who lodged the final proposal and to the Clerk (who shall arrange for the indication to be printed in the Business Bulletin)—

(a) that the Executive will initiate legislation, within the same session, to give effect to the final proposal; or

(b) that Her Majesty’s Government has initiated or will initiate legislation, during the current or next session of the UK Parliament, to give effect to the final proposal.

The right to give such an indication may be waived at any time during the period referred to in paragraph 11 by notice in writing to the member who lodged the final proposal and to the Clerk; and such a notice shall be printed in the Business Bulletin.

What a weekend

I took a few days off blogging – effectively a long weekend – expecting nothing to have happened or been newsworthy over that period. Alas, how wrong I was.

As I wrote my last post on Friday I had no idea that the result of Thursday’s council elections in England and Wales were going to be anywhere near as good as they turned out to be. It’s fair to say that new Labour died on May 2nd. I also find the comparisons to John Major a tad unfair especially as Major at least had a mandate to be leader having won a leadership contest. I do find myself thoroughly agreeing with Euan McColm in the News of the World (not available online unfortunately) that Brown has only got himself to blame and barring a mistake of huge proportions David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

I was also thoroughly delighted to see Boris winning the London Mayoral Election on Friday. I do believe that Livingstone is a talented politician but him being voted out of office was another vote against Gordon Brown’s Labour Party. I even read Tony Benn blaming Thursday’s results on ‘Blairism’ and even the most ardent acolytes of Blair must accept that fact.

I think the biggest surprise of the weekend is over Labour’s stance on an independence referendum. I’m curious if she even knows what it is she is doing. When reading the article in the Sunday Mail, found here, I have to admit I didn’t really believe what I was reading but it quickly became apparent that Mark Aitken had a wee scoop on his hands judging by Monday’s coverage of the story at least.

YouGov/Sunday Times Survey

I’ve just received some quite interesting results from a YouGov/Sunday Times Westminster voting intentions opinion poll which are not good news for Gordon Brown and Labour.

Some quite interesting findings, for example 47% of women are likely to vote Conservative compared to 27% who will vote Labour whilst in the male category 42% are likely to vote Conservative compared to 29% who are going to vote for Labour. When it comes to age range the results are rather positive for the Conservatives as they defeat Labour 43% to 28% in the 18-34 year olds, 39%-34% in the 35 to 54 years category whilst comfortably defeating Labour, 50% to 22%, in the over 55 category.

The region section is broken down into five areas; London, Rest of South, Midlands/Wales, North and Scotland. Of these five areas Labour only wins two – Scotland and the North but only just edge the North by 1%. As expected the Conservatives win comfortably in the South – 52% to 23%. The Party also do very well in London winning 48% to 31% whilst also crushing Labour in the Midlands/Wales area 50% to 21%. Although Labour wins the result for the sample in Scotland is quite positive for the Conservatives. This is quite consistent to recent polls which have the Conservatives between 17% and 21% in Scotland.

A rough breakdown of seats in Scotland would have Labour on around 30, the Lib Dems on ten or thereabouts, the Nats on around 15 whilst the Tories would be on 4 or so.

The poll is also quite positive regarding the performance thus far of David Cameron. Across the whole of the UK 44% of people think he is doing fairly well as Conservative leader as opposed to 26% of people who think Gordon Brown is doing fairly well as Prime Minister. Also, only 11% of people think Cameron is doing very badly compared to 28% who think Gordon Brown is doing very badly. In Scotland 43% of people think Gordon Brown is doing fairly well and 29% think he is doing fairly badly. When it comes to David Cameron 44% of Scots think he is doing fairly well with 27% thinking he is doing fairly badly with more people thinking Gordon Brown is doing very badly – 19% - than think David Cameron is doing very badly – 12%.

Labour's week just gets worse and worse .....

1) Brown admits donations 'unlawful'

2) Harman defends Abrahams donation

3) Brown fire fighting

Can this Labour government take any more? They are in total disarray. Just as well for Brown he didn't call that election last month. His career would be over. As it stands, it doesn't have that long to go anyway.

Are the Lib Dems better off without a leader?

An ICM poll that's to appear in tomorrow's Guardian shows that perhaps they are.

Skynews is reporting that in the latest poll the Lib Dems are on 18%, up 4% on the last poll. Quite surprising that they should get a leaderless bounce.

Sky reports that voter perceptions of Gordon Brown have been battered over the last month. 29% of respondents said their view of Brown had deteriorated and only 8% improved. 21% were more favourable to David Cameron; 17% less so.

Sunday Papers

Eddie Barnes in today's Scotland on Sunday writes that the Tories could do well to copy the SNP's tactics that ousted a tired, visionless Labour Party in Scotland.

"Most obviously, Cameron has shamelessly nicked Salmond's central message from last April's election campaign. The SNP's election campaign slogan was simple: "It's Time," their election posters declared. The Conservatives have now adopted "It's Time for a Change" in all their own campaigning literature. Both parties have understood the huge importance of pendulums in politics - that innate sense we hold that, after one party has had a lengthy period in office, there is a certain historical inevitability about a change in Government. Salmond recognised this was one of his most powerful assets: now Cameron has followed suit.

While I imagine the Tory campaign slogan has met with scorn from some, I think it is difficult to convey the message that we are trying to covey without using something simple. The point of a slogan is that it is simple and memorable.

Sun gives the Conservatives 3% lead

"The Tories have swept to a three-point lead in the wake of Gordon Brown’s disastrous week, an exclusive poll for The Sun reveals today. David Cameron has steered his party to 41 per cent support – with Labour trailing on just 38 per cent." - The Sun

Can we believe what the Prime Minister says? Harriet Harman shakes her head

Hilarious video on playpolitical of Harriet Harman shaking her head when David Cameron asks if the nation can any longer trust Gordon Brown.

Question Time

She's getting a bit of a doing on Question Time as well, particularly from former Sun Editor Kelvin MacKenzie, always good fun to watch.

Cameron 1 - Brown 0

I have just watched PMQ's on youtube there, what a performance from David Cameron. Those who haven't seen it can view it here. (Someone can perhaps tell me who you put a youtube video onto a post.)

Anyway, seems like various media outlets are falling over themselves to praise Cameron on yesterday's performance. The Herald claims that Cameron drew first blood, The FT, believes Brown was on the end of a "mauling", Matthew Parris in The Times believes it is the closest it comes in the Commons to burning a man at the stake, the leader piece in the Telegraph believes Cameron berated a weakened Prime Minister while Ann Treneman in the Times parliamentary sketch described PMQs as a disaster for Gordon Brown.

All in all a good day at the office for David Cameron. Let's just hope Cameron can maintain this momentum.

Autumn Election Ruled out

The BBC is reporting that Gordon Brown has ruled out an autumn election. Have to admit I’m delighted with this news!

*Update*

Did anyone else see Ming on the BBC news? Claiming Brown has lost his nerve, wonder if the Lib Dems will use the fact there is no election to dump Ming.

Tory Conference

So that's Tory conference over, ending with an absolutely tremendous speech from David Cameron.

I voted for Cameron as our leader and certainly would describe myself as a Cameroonian and I was deeply impressed by Cameron's conference speech. His delivery was fantastic and he spoke without notes, much better than the rigid and dull speech from Gordon Brown at the Labour conference.

I was also mightily impressed by Cameron stating he wasn't ashamed of his upbringing and education at Eton. I genuinely do not believe that the electorate care what University, if any, their Prime Minister went to, what the electorate want is a leader that they can believe in.

Whenever the election is, I hope and pray that we do well as otherwise the knives will be out for Cameron which could lead the party to going down the knee jerk right wing route, something that I would hate to see happen, didn't work in 2001 and 2005 but it hasn't stopped many criticising Cameron and harking back to those glory days(!!) of '01 and '05.

Saatchi and Saatchi join Labour

The Sunday Times is reporting that Saatchi and Saatchi, the PR firm below posters such as the one below, have agreed to help Labour in the next General Election with the slogan "Not flash, just Gordon."

Jack's new job

So Jack's been awarded the position of British High Commissioner to Malawi.

Any truth in the rumour that in Gordon Brown's press release announcing this he referred to Jack as Jack McDonald....