Some ridiculous predictions - Pele predicting that Columbia would win the 1994 World Cup – they went out in the group stages, Graham Taylor predicting that England would win the 1992 European Championships – they returned from Sweden without winning a game. A certain woman predicting in 1974 that, in her lifetime, a woman would never be prime minister, the woman in questions is of course Margaret Thatcher who became Prime Minister five years later. Much more recently I’ve seen on blogger predicting that Alex Fergusson would lose Galloway and Upper Nithsdale due to it being number one on the SNP target list – didn’t happen though eh Jeff?
Anyway, the point of this post you ask. Well, just when I thought Jeff over at SNP tactical voter had stopped making ridiculous predictions, he’s surprised me. Wait for it….the SNP to win Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. As dumb predictions go, this is pretty dumb.
Let’s look at the facts. The Dumfries Westminster seat (which prior to 2005 took in rural Dumfries) has never had an SNP member of Parliament. From 1963 until the wipeout of 1997 the seat was a Conservative seat held for the majority of that time by the late Sir Hector Munro. In the 2005 election, the first election after the creation of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (DCT) the Tories piped Labour to the seat taking 36% of the vote compared to Labours 32.3%. One of the main reasons the Tories won that seat was due to the selection of then South of Scotland MSP David Mundell as the candidate. Mundell has spent the six years since first being elected as a List MSP for the area shadowing Constituency MSP Elaine Murray and his years of hard work paid of in winning the seat.
So, for the Nats you’d expect them to select a local hard working candidate, right? Well…wrong. Whilst the last time the party selected serial candidate Andrew Wood (who is now a Councillor) they have selected a virtual unknown in Aileen Orr – who stood in Roxburgh and Berwickshire in the last Holyrood Elections finishing a distant third.
I think back to the drawing board with this prediction Jeff.
Anyway, the point of this post you ask. Well, just when I thought Jeff over at SNP tactical voter had stopped making ridiculous predictions, he’s surprised me. Wait for it….the SNP to win Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. As dumb predictions go, this is pretty dumb.
Let’s look at the facts. The Dumfries Westminster seat (which prior to 2005 took in rural Dumfries) has never had an SNP member of Parliament. From 1963 until the wipeout of 1997 the seat was a Conservative seat held for the majority of that time by the late Sir Hector Munro. In the 2005 election, the first election after the creation of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (DCT) the Tories piped Labour to the seat taking 36% of the vote compared to Labours 32.3%. One of the main reasons the Tories won that seat was due to the selection of then South of Scotland MSP David Mundell as the candidate. Mundell has spent the six years since first being elected as a List MSP for the area shadowing Constituency MSP Elaine Murray and his years of hard work paid of in winning the seat.
So, for the Nats you’d expect them to select a local hard working candidate, right? Well…wrong. Whilst the last time the party selected serial candidate Andrew Wood (who is now a Councillor) they have selected a virtual unknown in Aileen Orr – who stood in Roxburgh and Berwickshire in the last Holyrood Elections finishing a distant third.
I think back to the drawing board with this prediction Jeff.
4 comments:
Aileen Orr!?
Ok, I stand corrected in that case, someone told me that Sean Connery was standing in that constituency... ;)
What's this about Mundell not standing again? =)
This is alba,
It's all nonsense. Of course Mundell is standing again. Jeff was just making it all up by the sounds of things.
STB
It's doubtful that Mundell will be unseated anytime soon. Such is the life of an MP who is respected by his constituents, although given certain fundamental differences on constitutional reform, he'll not be getting my vote.
Good bloke though.
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