No no, I’ve not lost my mind I’ve merely had a wee look at this website here. I haven’t read Iain Dale’s cracking blog for quite some time but stumbled across this post this morning in which Iain talks of the chances of a Tory/Nat coalition at Westminster.
There’s a wee piece in today’s Scottish Daily Express, which unfortunately is not online, in which the Nats fancy there chances of picking up an amazing 27 seats – primarily from, in their words, the beleaguered Labour Party. Now, I’ve only met Angus Robertson once or twice (he does still say hello when he passes me) and I have to say that he is quite an impressive figure. I do however doubt the number he predicts. The Electoral Calculus site predicts the SNP will win ten seats which is impressive enough and a jump of four from their current base.
Scotland wide the Electoral Calculus site predicts the following:
Conservative 2 (+1)
Labour 40 (-1)
Lib Dem 7 (-4)
SNP 10 (+4)
Of course there are issues that would have to be resolved if the Nats and Tories were to form a coalition – issues I think everyone knows – but as Iain Dale points out the Nats do not see the Tories as “the devil incarnate” anymore. The Sunday Times poll, which the Express picks up on, shows the SNP 7 points ahead of Labour and 19 points up on their 2005 election performance. Many in Labour must increasingly be becoming aware of the fact that their days in Government are numbered…
There’s a wee piece in today’s Scottish Daily Express, which unfortunately is not online, in which the Nats fancy there chances of picking up an amazing 27 seats – primarily from, in their words, the beleaguered Labour Party. Now, I’ve only met Angus Robertson once or twice (he does still say hello when he passes me) and I have to say that he is quite an impressive figure. I do however doubt the number he predicts. The Electoral Calculus site predicts the SNP will win ten seats which is impressive enough and a jump of four from their current base.
Scotland wide the Electoral Calculus site predicts the following:
Conservative 2 (+1)
Labour 40 (-1)
Lib Dem 7 (-4)
SNP 10 (+4)
Of course there are issues that would have to be resolved if the Nats and Tories were to form a coalition – issues I think everyone knows – but as Iain Dale points out the Nats do not see the Tories as “the devil incarnate” anymore. The Sunday Times poll, which the Express picks up on, shows the SNP 7 points ahead of Labour and 19 points up on their 2005 election performance. Many in Labour must increasingly be becoming aware of the fact that their days in Government are numbered…
4 comments:
Dearie me, laddie, as a Tory you should be talking up the Tory position and predicting a Cameron landslide. I'll continue to talk about 30 SNP MPs.
I don't think anyone now believes that Brown can win the next election - including Brown, although he will still be hoping for a miracle.
Besides which, do you still not appreciate the possibilities of minority government?
What figures are you inputting?
The YouGov figures give this:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html?userpoll_scot.html
Party - 05 Votes - 05 Seats - Pred % - Pred Seats
CON - 15.83% - 1 - 18.00% - 3
LAB - 39.54% - 41 - 30.00% - 22
LIB - 22.64% - 11 - 11.00% - 7
NAT - 17.67% - 6 - 37.00% - 27
I think that the tory/nat dynamic is probably one of the most interesting in the current political scene. It's one of those relationship's that you instinctively think shouldn't work, no doubt as a hangover from the Thatcher years.
Yet the tories, not least in Holyrood, have taken a mature approach to the SNP administration and it seems to have been reciprocated.
Of course it may simply be a case of "my enemies enemey ..."
Alasdair,
I think it's more of a mature stance rather than an enemy of my enemy approach.
Whitefield Ballet Company,
The figures I used were from this site: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
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